Prospective 2100

The scenario

Everyone makes decisions based on his own particular views of the future, usually intuitive and often implicit. Futurology is concerned with building a clear visions making the bases of decisions more obvious and better understood by those making them.

The views presented in this website are the result of more than 20 years' work involving several hundreds of specialists. The first results were published in french under the title "2100, Récit du prochain siècle", Payot 1990.

Following our experience in innovation policy and technological awareness and foresight, the hypothesis of a major shift in civilization, comparable to the so called "industrial revolution" appeared clearly at the end of the 70's. A more detailed analysis, supported by two delphi panels, the first involving 300 experts and the second, at the beginning of the 80's involving 1200 experts, gave a shape to this major evolution. Then, a comparison with historical data showed that the industrial revolution and also the early middle age (1100-1300) technical and civilizational change were quite comparable and could be decribed by the same shape, involving four poles that we used to present on a cross as follows :

The only problem we encountered with this scheme has been the future of man-biosphere relations. First we quoted, as in the above draw, genetic manipulations as the core factor. But, in a second stage, we realized that these manipulations were not so much in the line of the new cognitive system, but that they were rather a follow up of the spirit of the industrial age. Thus, we replaced "genetic manipulations" by "planetary garden", aimed at restoring an equilibrium between mankind and nature.

In order to understand these great transition in civilization, we had to create a new approach of history through techology-society interactions, that we named "ethnotechnology". One one side, society generates technology (the innovation process) ; on the other side, technology transforms society through a "feed back" that, in most cases, had not been anticipated. One key feature, for instance, is the replacement of the ruling class during these transitions.

The medieval transition in Europe appears based on a renewal of agricultural techniques, in which occurred a significative increase in rationality. Capitalization of experiences, selection of seeds and animals, use of iron for ploughs and other rural tools, building of water and wind mills used as despecialized sources of energy. This evolution was supported by the activities of monasteries, acting as technical research facilities and exchanging the results of their experiences. The first european universities were created (Bologna, Oxford, Paris). Technologies were also imported to Europe from the arabic world (irrigation..), which had also imported some from China (the paper, the compass, the rudder...).

The "industrial revolution" story is well known. Competition of silk works imported from India and energy shortage due to over exploitation of the european forests created an environment in which coal mining and textile mechanisation appeared as acceptable solutions, in spite of their inconveniences. Standardisation and increased precision in measurements allowed delocalization of the production facilities, their development through weapon manufacturing being stimulated by european aggressivity. In 20th century, the substitution of oil to coal as the dominant source of energy generated a period of uncomparable easyness, which is now coming to an end. At the same time, industrial technology and way of life is spreading out worldwide, involving enormous transportation activity, pollutions, climate change, decline in biodiversity and depletion of natural resources. The structural axis of this period is the material - energy axis, bearing a so called "materialist" philosophy.

We use to name the present transformation the "cognitive revolution", in relation to the "cognitive sciences" and the major impact of information technologies. The structural axis appears in the above scheme as the vertical one  which goes from life to time. The philosophy underlying this new era is less obvious to foresee. As machines are operating faster than neurons, the mental capacities are challenged, and the way reality is percieved and understood becomes an open question. What is life ? The answer to this question is probably the key opening the views of the future. Paradoxically, living bodies are not made of matter. Matter flows through them (the nutrition process). They are made of an information structure that gives shape to matter. Another and even more fundamental shift is required. The usual interpretation of Darwin, during the materialist age, focuses on the "struggle for life". But reading again Darwin and his followers (Gould, Ameisen...), it is clear that living organisms are made of cooperation of billions of cells. These are not struggling but organising a symbiosis. And the cells that are no more useful to give shape to the global organism sacrifice themselves (apoptosis).

These new visons lead to a shift in values, that will probably need several generations and maybe some dramatic events. To our understanding, it can be roughly described by the following table.

Useful comparison to built scenarios

Looking more precisely to the history of the early middle age and the industrial revolution, we observe a similar sequence that bear a lesson for scenario building on the cognitive revolution. Here is a summary that inspired the more detailed table presented in the preceding section "table of 21st century".